The NYC crime decline and “better policing”

New York City’s crime decline is often attributed to better policing, but some tactics have been controversial, including the “stop, question, and frisk” tactic that peaked at about 700,000 stops in 2011. “A large percentage of those stopped were minorities, and critics and plaintiffs in federal court proceedings questioned whether all these stops ...
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“A black male baby born today … stands a” near-zero chance of going to prison

Bonczar & Beck (1997) estimated the lifetime risk of going to state or federal prison at birth and showed how the remaining risk of going to prison for the first time declines with age, based on the assumption that “incarceration rates recorded in 1991 remain unchanged in the future”. For black males, the ...
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Time-Precedence: Reasonable Doubt … in 2002

At a minimum, the time-precedence causation indicator requires that the suspected cause precede the effect. The best-fit time lags for lead and crime trends, with a shorter lag for property crime than for violent crime, provide especially compelling evidence of time precedence. The same lags are evident around the world, with divergent international ...
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Has any other crime theory predicted crime trends with so much accuracy, over so many years, in so many nations?

Hill (1965) states that “the strongest support for the causation hypothesis may be revealed” when an action is taken to prevent a suspected cause of disease, and later trends show “experimental evidence” of cause and effect: “Is the frequency of the associated events affected?” In other words, does the hypothesized causal relationship have ...
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Denno’s Discovery

From John Pekkanen (2006) (PDF), “Why Is Lead Still Poisoning Our Children?” Washingtonian Magazine: “Nevin’s conclusions amplify earlier studies linking lead exposure and criminal behavior, none more striking than work by Deborah W. Denno, a professor at Fordham University School of Law. Longitudinal studies analyze the same group of individuals over a period ...
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Consistency

Consistency is an established indicator of causation in public health research. The consistency of an association between an environmental exposure and a public health outcome is determined by whether the association has been “repeatedly observed by different persons, in different places, circumstances and times” (Hill, (1965). The association between individual preschool lead exposure ...
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