Update: Juvenile crime still falling fast in 2021

USA arrest rates by age have only been updated through 2020, but juvenile arrest data reported by 10 states (FL, TX, CA, NY, VA, TN, WA, SC, GA, NC) show the trend toward zero juvenile crime continued in 2021. Weighted average data for these 10 states (accounting for about half of the USA population) show the following changes in juvenile arrests from 2020 to 2021:

  • Burglary: Down 34%
  • Motor Vehicle Theft: Down 13%
  • Other Felony Larceny-Theft: Down 28%
  • Total Felony Property Crime: Down 29%
  • Robbery: Down 23%
  • Aggravated Assault: Up 7% (after a 29% decline from 2019 to 2020)
  • Total Violent Crime: Down 5%.

Adding the 29% decline in juvenile property crime in 2021 to the 1960-2020 national data trend shows that the 2021 juvenile property crime arrest rate was only about one-tenth of the 1960 rate. Note that the 1960 rate was the record low rate from 1960 through 2000.


Adding the 23% decline in juvenile robberies in 2021 to the 1960-2020 national data trend shows that the 2021 juvenile robbery arrest rate was less than one-half of the 1960 rate. The 2021 juvenile robbery arrest rate was down 85% from its 1994 peak.

After a 29% fall in the juvenile aggravated assault rate from 2019-2020, a 7% increase from 2020-2021 still left the 2021 rate lower than in any year from 1965-2019.  

The juvenile violent crime arrest rate fell to a record low in 2020 and fell to a new record low in 2021.

The impact of birth year trends in lead exposure is the only criminology theory that can explain this extraordinary ongoing decline in juvenile crime.

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