Bonczar & Beck (1997) estimated the lifetime risk of going to state or federal prison at birth and showed how the remaining risk of going to prison for the first time declines with age, based on the assumption that “incarceration rates recorded in 1991 remain unchanged in the future”. For black males, the lifetime risk was 28.5% ...Read More →
At a minimum, the time-precedence causation indicator requires that the suspected cause precede the effect. The best-fit time lags for lead and crime trends, with a shorter lag for property crime than for violent crime, provide especially compelling evidence of time precedence. The same lags are evident around the world, with divergent international crime trends explained by ...Read More →
Has any other crime theory predicted crime trends with so much accuracy, over so many years, in so many nations?
Hill (1965) states that “the strongest support for the causation hypothesis may be revealed” when an action is taken to prevent a suspected cause of disease, and later trends show “experimental evidence” of cause and effect: “Is the frequency of the associated events affected?” In other words, does the hypothesized causal relationship have predictive power? Does removing ...Read More →
From John Pekkanen (2006) (PDF), “Why Is Lead Still Poisoning Our Children?” Washingtonian Magazine: “Nevin’s conclusions amplify earlier studies linking lead exposure and criminal behavior, none more striking than work by Deborah W. Denno, a professor at Fordham University School of Law. Longitudinal studies analyze the same group of individuals over a period of time, and Denno ...Read More →
Consistency is an established indicator of causation in public health research. The consistency of an association between an environmental exposure and a public health outcome is determined by whether the association has been “repeatedly observed by different persons, in different places, circumstances and times” (Hill, (1965). The association between individual preschool lead exposure and later delinquent and ...Read More →