Massive declines in arrest rates for juveniles and adults ages 18-24 have caused an astonishing change in the age distribution of felony arrests since 1980.

• In 1980, adults ages 25 and older accounted for just 19% of burglary arrests and children ages 14 and younger accounted for 15%.
• In 2020, adults ages 25 and older accounted for 71% of burglary arrests, and children ages 14 and younger accounted for just 3%.

• In 1980, adults ages 25 and older accounted for 20% of motor vehicle theft arrests, and children ages 14 and younger accounted for 11%.  
• In 2020, adults ages 25 and older accounted for 66% of motor vehicle theft arrests, and children ages 14 and younger accounted for just 4%.

• In 1980, adults ages 25 and older accounted for 31% of felony larceny-theft arrests, and children ages 14 and younger accounted for 15%.  
• In 2020, adults ages 25 and older accounted for 74% of felony larceny-theft arrests, and children ages 14 and younger accounted for just 2%.

• In 1980, adults ages 25 and older accounted for 27% of robbery arrests, and children ages 14 and younger accounted for 7%.  
• In 2020, adults ages 25 and older accounted for 53% of robbery arrests, and children ages 14 and younger accounted for 4%.

• In 1980, adults ages 25 and older accounted for 51% of aggravated assault arrests, and children ages 14 and younger accounted for 4%.  
• In 2020, adults ages 25 and older accounted for 76% of aggravated assault arrests, and children ages 14 and younger accounted for just 1%.

The age distribution of felony arrests from 1980 through 2020 provides an important insight into why some crime categories have fallen to record lows over recent years while other types of felony crime have increased.

In 2015, the burglary rate fell to the lowest level ever recorded in FBI data back to 1960. The burglary rate then fell to new record lows every year from 2015 through 2020.  The 1960 burglary rate was the record low from 1960 through 2014, but the burglary rate in 2020 was 38% lower than it was in 1960. Burglary has recorded a very large decline because it has always had a younger age distribution of offender arrests compared to other felony crimes. It appears that most young burglars either age out of offending by the age of 25 or they move on to other types of felony offenses.

In 2014, the motor vehicle theft rate fell to the lowest level since 1962. FBI recorded motor vehicle theft rates from 2014 through 2020 fluctuated at levels lower than in any year from 1964 through 2009. But motor vehicle theft arrests for ages 24 and younger fell to 40-year lows in 2019 and 2020, offset by increasing arrests for ages 25 and older. 

In 2020, the felony larceny-theft rate fell to the lowest level since 1965, after falling every year from 2001 through 2020. Adults ages 25 and older accounted for 44% of larceny-theft arrests in 2001, and 74% of larceny-theft arrests in 2020. 

In 2020, the robbery rate fell to the lowest level since 1965, after falling almost every year since 2006. Adults ages 25 and older accounted for 46% of robbery arrests in 2006, and 53% of robbery arrests in 2020. 

Aggravated assault has always had an older age distribution of offender arrests compared to other felony crimes. In 2020, the aggravated assault rate rose to the highest level since 2008, though still down 37% from the peak rate in 1991. But aggravated assault arrests for ages 24 and younger fell to 40-year lows in 2019 and 2020, offset by increasing arrests for ages 25 and older.

Hysterical news commentary about a “crime surge” in 2020 ignores the fact that burglary, larceny-theft, and robbery rates all fell to multi-decade lows in 2020. Motor vehicle theft and aggravated assault arrests for ages 24 and younger also fell to 40-year lows in in 2020. A variety of factors can affect the change in recorded crime rates over a year or two. But in the longer term, it is absolutely certain that recorded crime rates will continue falling as we continue to see ongoing declines in arrest rates for juveniles and adults ages 18-24.

There was a real crime surge in the 1960s, when arrest trends by age were the polar opposite of trends from 1980 through 2020. Offenders under the age of 25 accounted for 77% of the increase in violent crime arrests from 1960 to 1969 (reflecting the impact of surging gasoline lead emissions after WWII).