“The prevalence of offending tends to increase from late childhood, peak in the teenage years (from 15 to 19) and then decline in the early 20s. This bell-shaped age trend, called the age-crime curve, is universal in Western populations” (National Institute of Justice, 2014)

This statement was not true in 2019 and it was even less true in 2020.  

• In 1980 and 1994, the violent crime arrest rate peaked at age 18.
• In 2020, the violent crime arrest rate peaked at ages 25-29.
• In 1994, the violent crime arrest rate for ages 13-14 was 3.2 times higher than the arrest rate for ages 45-49.
• In 2020, the violent crime arrest rate for ages 13-14 was 44% lower than the arrest rate for ages 45-49.

• In 1980 and 1988, the property crime arrest rate peaked at age 16.
• In 2020, the property crime arrest rate peaked at ages 30-34.
• In 1980, the age-16 property crime arrest rate was 6.3 times higher than the arrest rate for ages 30-34.
• In 2020, the age-16 property crime arrest rate was 30% lower than the arrest rate for ages 30-34.

• From 1988-2020, the property crime arrest rate for ages 0-14 fell 94%.
• From 1988-2020, the property crime arrest rate for ages 50-54 fell just 7%.
• From 1994-2020, the violent crime arrest rate for ages 0-14 fell 82%
• From 1994-2020, the violent crime arrest rate for ages 50-54 rose by 20%

Is there any other criminology theory – other than the impact of birth year trends in lead exposure – that can explain this extraordinary pattern in arrest rate trends by age over the last 3 decades?