I first wrote about the pipeline to prison running dry in 2015. At that time, I cited available data through 2013 showing stunning declines in juvenile arrest rates and juveniles in state and federal prisons, adult jails, and juvenile residential placement (corrections) facilities. "From 1991-2013,... juvenile (under 18) arrest rates fell by 63% for violent crime and ...

In 2015, Glenn Kessler fact-checked a claim that a Black male "born today" had a one in three chance of being incarcerated during his lifetime. Kessler traced that claim to a 2013 Sentencing Project report that cited imprisonment risks from a 2003 analysis by Bonczar. That 2003 analysis stated that its lifetime risk estimates assumed that "age-specific ...