Rick Nevin is an economist who is best known for his peer-reviewed research showing the relationship between preschool lead exposure trends and subsequent international crime trends, and USA trends in unwed teen pregnancy, Scholastic Achievement Test scores, and intellectual disability (ID). He has also written a short book, called Lucifer Curves, that updates and augments his research showing that lead exposure trends explain ongoing international crime trends, shifts in the peak age of offending dating back to the dawn of the industrial revolution, and converging USA racial trends in ID prevalence, unwed teen pregnancy, and arrest and incarceration rates.

Nevin was the principal author of the Economic Analysis of the 1999 Department of Housing and Urban Development rule on lead paint hazard evaluation and reduction. He also developed the methodology and technical appendix for the Federal Strategy for Eliminating Childhood Lead Poisoning, prepared for the President’s Task Force on Environmental Health and Safety Risks to Children, and he was a Co-Investigator on a NIH grant for Preventing Child Residential Lead Exposure by Window Replacement.
Email: [email protected]

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Media Coverage

  • Haner (2000) “Studies suggest link between lead, violence”, The Baltimore Sun.

  • Vedantam (2007) “Research Links Lead Exposure, Criminal Activity”, Washington Post.

  • Drum (2013) “Lead: America’s Real Criminal Element”, Mother Jones.

  • Corderoy (2013) “Are lead levels linked to crime?”, Sydney Morning Herald.

  • Zolfagharifard (2014) “Has removing lead from paint and petrol reduced CRIME? Toxin is linked to surges in theft and violent assault”, Daily Mail.

  • Zaleski (2020) “The Unequal Burden of Urban Lead”, Bloomberg CityLab.

  • Pekkanen (2006) (PDF) “Why Is Lead Still Poisoning Our Children?” Washingtonian.

  • Toppo (2007) “Lead exposure, crime seem to correlate”, USA Today.

  • Dockterman (2013) “Childhood Lead Exposure May Cost Developing Countries Nearly $1 Trillion”, Time.

  • Mendel (2014) “Analysis: Is Lead Exposure the Secret to the Rapid Rise and Fantastic Fall of the Juvenile Crime Rate?”, Juvenile Justice Information Exchange.

  • Wolf (2014) “The Crimes Of Lead”, Chemical & Engineering News.

  • Galef (2019) Rick Nevin on "The long-term effects of lead on crime" Rationally Speaking podcast.

  • Haner (2000) “Studies suggest link between lead, violence”, The Baltimore Sun.

  • Pekkanen (2006) (PDF) “Why Is Lead Still Poisoning Our Children?” Washingtonian.

  • Vedantam (2007) “Research Links Lead Exposure, Criminal Activity”, Washington Post.

  • Toppo (2007) “Lead exposure, crime seem to correlate”, USA Today.

  • Drum (2013) “Lead: America’s Real Criminal Element”, Mother Jones.

  • Dockterman (2013) “Childhood Lead Exposure May Cost Developing Countries Nearly $1 Trillion”, Time.

  • Corderoy (2013) “Are lead levels linked to crime?”, Sydney Morning Herald.

  • Mendel (2014) “Analysis: Is Lead Exposure the Secret to the Rapid Rise and Fantastic Fall of the Juvenile Crime Rate?”, Juvenile Justice Information Exchange.

  • Zolfagharifard (2014) “Has removing lead from paint and petrol reduced CRIME? Toxin is linked to surges in theft and violent assault”, Daily Mail.

  • Wolf (2014) “The Crimes Of Lead”, Chemical & Engineering News.

  • Galef (2019) Rick Nevin on "The long-term effects of lead on crime" Rationally Speaking podcast.

  • Zaleski (2020) “The Unequal Burden of Urban Lead”, Bloomberg CityLab.