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The 2022 prisoners report showed that young male imprisonment rates are still heading toward zero. The imprisonment rate for men ages 18-19 fell 89% from 2001-2022, with Black men recording the steepest decline. In this age group, the 2022 Black male imprisonment rate was just slightly higher than the 2001 White male imprisonment rate. The…

The transition to a new FBI reporting system made preliminary 2021 crime data unreliable, creating a “massive gap in information … exploited by politicians in midterm election campaigns“. The FBI has now released updated, reliable crime data through 2022 (here) and YTD data through September 2023 showing the percent change compared to 2022 (here). These…

The OJJDP has updated juvenile residential placement commitment rates through 2021 (court ordered commitments per 100,000 juveniles,  here). Juvenile residential placement data are generally reported for every other year. The graph below reflects reported data, and straight-line interpolation for years between years of reported data, from 1997-2021. The juvenile residential placement commitment rate peaked in…

USA arrest rates by age have only been updated through 2020, but juvenile arrest data reported by 10 states (FL, TX, CA, NY, VA, TN, WA, SC, GA, NC) show the trend toward zero juvenile crime continued in 2021. Weighted average data for these 10 states (accounting for about half of the USA population) show…

Recent reports on USA prisoners and jail inmates in 2021 show youth incarceration is still heading toward zero. The prison incarceration rate for men ages 18-19 fell 88% from 2001-2021. The trendline for that decline hits zero in 2025. The number of juveniles in adult prisons fell 92% from 2000-2021, and juveniles in adult jails…

Massive declines in arrest rates for juveniles and adults ages 18-24 have caused an astonishing change in the age distribution of felony arrests since 1980. The age distribution of felony arrests from 1980 through 2020 provides an important insight into why some crime categories have fallen to record lows over recent years while other types…

The massive decline in juvenile offending has – predictably – spread to arrest rates for ages 18-20 and 21-24.   Adult-onset offending is very rare, but 40% to 60% of youths with juvenile arrests continue offending in early adulthood. “For those who do persist, the transition from adolescence to adulthood is a period of increasing…

“The prevalence of offending tends to increase from late childhood, peak in the teenage years (from 15 to 19) and then decline in the early 20s. This bell-shaped age trend, called the age-crime curve, is universal in Western populations” (National Institute of Justice, 2014) This statement was not true in 2019 and it was even…

Everyone loves a true crime mystery. Dateline NBC – “the OG of true crime” – is the most-watched newsmagazine on TV. With that fan base, you would think that NBC might want to follow up on the amazing true crime mystery investigated by Dick Mendel in 2014. “For the juvenile justice field, there is no…

In its 2020 Energy Outlook, BP declared that the world reached Peak Oil demand in 2019. BP’s 2022 report revised that forecast, with oil demand expected to surpass the 2019 level by the mid-2020s before beginning to fall. The 2022 BP outlook was prepared before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (OilPrice.com, 2022). Recent data suggest…